Quantitative Valuation, TCO & Collateral Methodology (M-2026.10-r2)
Published UTC: 2026-10-26T02:00:00Z · Executed Server Comp Threshold: n ≥ 5 (Freshness ≤ 60 days)
1. Strict 5-Band Valuation Taxonomy & SpotWire Component Boundary
M-2026.10-r2 enforces strict evidentiary boundaries across every hardware profile:
- New OEM / Channel Reference (0m): Published integrator or AI Hardware Index asking median for 0-month server BOM.
- Secondary Refurbished Asking (T3): Unexecuted secondary dealer offer band (explicitly non-transactional).
- Executed / Comp Secondary FMV (T1): Requires n ≥ 5 invoice-verified 8-GPU/4-GPU server-cluster transactions executed within the last 60 days. Single-card component eBay datasets (e.g., SpotWire
gpu_ebay, separated bydata_backed/thin/estimatedcoverage and quarantined when >60d old) are exposed solely as diagnostic component cross-checks and never promoted to server-cluster FMV. - Credit Borrowing-Base Halt vs. Hypothetical T4 Model: Currently 0 of 8 hardware profiles in SQLite hold ≥5 fresh (≤60d) executed server-cluster comps; consequently, Credit-Eligible Borrowing Base OLV and Senior Loan Principal are strictly €0 / INELIGIBLE across all profiles until verified ITAD comps are ingested. Parametric T4 decay figures are isolated in a separate non-credit simulation panel.
- LIVE MARKET DATA vs. STATIC REFERENCE ASSUMPTIONS: Every response exposes
data_provenance_splitseparating live ingested feeds (ECB FX, EurostatX_VATpower, Fraunhofer spot, Azure/AWS retail rate cards) from static parameters inmethodology_v1.json(includingneocloud_ref_secure_usd_gpu_h, taggedT4_STATIC_MODEL_ASSUMPTION—never a live GPU rental index).
2. Data Center Load Physics & Eurostat tax=X_VAT Industrial Power
Enterprise AI clusters draw significant baseline power at idle and pay regulated industrial grid tariffs rather than raw wholesale spot:
P_facility(kW) = N_nodes × P_IT_max × (0.35 + 0.65 × Utilization) × PUE
- 35% Base Idle Draw: Accounts for dual-socket host CPUs, 2 TB DDR5 RAM, NVSwitch fabric, BMC/cooling, and PSU losses prior to dynamic tensor load.
- Eurostat
nrg_pc_205withtax=X_VAT: European siting calculations ingest BandIF(70,000–149,999 MWh/yr, ~8–17 MW facility) using official Eurostat tax codeX_VAT(Excluding VAT and other recoverable taxes and levies, while retaining non-recoverable industrial network charges and levies). EarlierI_TAXvalues (which include recoverable VAT) are purged. - Wholesale Spot Volatility Spread: Fraunhofer ISE Energy-Charts day-ahead spot is displayed strictly to quantify grid/levy spreads—never substituted as the full colocation bill.
3. Contract Existence vs. Verified Contractual Cashflows (DSCR Gate)
Credit committee metrics prevent unverified form inputs from masquerading as investment-grade contracted cashflows:
- 4-State Contract & Cashflow Separation: Unverified form inputs are labeled
USER_DECLARED_CONTRACT_SCENARIO. Even when averified_contractsrow confirms contract existence (AUDITOR_VERIFIED_CONTRACT_EXISTENCE), if no audited contractualcontracted_rate_usd_gpu_his stored, DSCR is classified asSIMULATED_DSCR_UNVERIFIED_CONTRACT_RATEand blocked from credit-eligible DSCR. Only contracts with both verified existence AND an audited$/GPU-hrate achieveAUDITOR_VERIFIED_CONTRACT_AND_RATE(using the exact contractual rate rather than a static-15%assumption). - 12–60 Month Mathematical Parity: Python JSON responses,
Monthly_Schedulelive-formula Excel workbooks (dynamically generating 12 to 60 monthly rows), and Executive PDF briefs share identical full-precision unrounded base inputs, guaranteeing <0.01 rounding parity across all horizons and currencies.
4. Accounting, Appraisal & GeForce EULA Exclusions
- Not USPAP / ASA / IFRS 13 Certification: Outputs do not replace physical serial-number inspection, burn-in telemetry verification, or a signed appraisal by an Accredited Senior Appraiser (ASA).
- GeForce EULA Borrowing-Base Block: Consumer GeForce SKUs (
RTX 5090) are hard-coded asINELIGIBLE_EULA_RESTRICTED(€0 eligible loan and €0 commercial data-center debt simulation) due to NVIDIA GeForce Software EULA restrictions on commercial data center deployment.
Enforced Source Licensing & Clean-IP Governance Ledger
Collector daemon refuses ingestion of any source not marked APPROVED_COMMERCIAL| Source ID | License | Status | Attribution & Legal Enforcement Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| azure_retail_api | Official-Public-Retail-API | APPROVED_COMMERCIAL | Microsoft Azure Official Retail Prices API: First-party published cloud retail rate cards permitted for TCO comparison & FinOps analytics. (Source: Microsoft Azure Public Retail Prices API (unauthenticated OData rate card).) |
| ecb_eurofxref | EU-Public-Reuse | APPROVED_COMMERCIAL | European Central Bank Reference FX: Free official reuse with source attribution per ECB statistics reuse policy. (Source: European Central Bank (ECB) Euro foreign exchange reference rates.) |
| eurostat_nrg_pc_205 | CC-BY-4.0 | APPROVED_COMMERCIAL | Eurostat Industrial Electricity Prices (Band IF: 70-150 GWh/yr, tax=X_VAT): Uses Eurostat tax=X_VAT (Excluding VAT and other recoverable taxes and levies; includes network fees and non-recoverable industrial levies) for 8-17 MW DC load. (Source: Eurostat (nrg_pc_205, tax=X_VAT), European Commission, licensed under CC BY 4.0.) |
| fraunhofer_energy_charts | CC-BY-4.0 | APPROVED_COMMERCIAL | Fraunhofer ISE Energy-Charts Day-Ahead Wholesale Spot: Used strictly to quantify wholesale volatility vs Eurostat X_VAT industrial tariff; never presented alone as full DC bill. (Source: Fraunhofer ISE Energy-Charts API (api.energy-charts.info), licensed under CC BY 4.0.) |
| spotwire_cc_by_4 | CC-BY-4.0 | APPROVED_COMMERCIAL | SpotWire Open GPU Component Cross-Check Dataset: Separates data_backed single-card gpu_ebay comps (T2_COMPONENT_SOLD_COMP when <=60d) from thin/estimated tiers (T3) and blocks stale (>60d) observations from cluster FMV or credit borrowing bases. (Component eBay sold-comp & index cross-check courtesy of SpotWire (spotwire.ai), licensed under CC BY 4.0.) |
| vantage_aws_mit | MIT | APPROVED_COMMERCIAL | Vantage EC2 Instances Dataset (AWS GPU Rate Cards): MIT-licensed dataset; polled conditionally via HTTP ETag (If-None-Match) extracting GPU families only. (Data normalized via vantage-sh/ec2instances.info (MIT License) from AWS Price List Bulk API.) |
| vast_ai_bundles | Proprietary-Restricted | BLOCKED_BY_TOS | Vast.ai Marketplace Bundles Endpoint: HARD BLOCK: Vast.ai ToS classifies marketplace pricing/availability as Authorized Data and prohibits external index/benchmark creation. (Vast.ai Authorized Data (Do Not Ingest)) |
| runpod_graphql | Proprietary-Rate-Card | GATED_PARTNER_PENDING | RunPod Public GraphQL GPU Catalog: GATED: Excluded from commercial API/report redistribution until written PartnerStack/B2B partner confirmation. (RunPod Secure vs Community Cloud Catalog) |